So You’re Saying There’s a Chance? The Dolphins’ Absurd, Chaos-Fueled Path to the Postseason
Let’s be honest, Phin fans. If I told you back in August that we’d be sitting here on New Year's Eve, staring down the barrel of a Week 18 game that requires a degree in quantum physics to understand the playoff implications of, you probably would have said, “Sounds about right.”
This is the Miami Dolphins experience. It is never easy. It is never straightforward. And it is certainly never boring.
Heading into the final week of the 2025-26 regular season, the narrative should be about draft picks. It should be about offseason tooling. But because the football gods have a wicked sense of humor, the 7-9 Miami Dolphins are mathematically, miraculously, still alive. The pulse is faint—barely a flutter—but it’s there.
However, to turn that flutter into a heartbeat, we need a sequence of events so specific, so chaotic, and so unlikely that it feels less like a sport and more like a lottery scratch-off.
Here is the "Doomsday Scenario" (or "Dream Scenario," depending on your caffeine intake) that needs to unfold this weekend for Miami to sneak into that final Wild Card spot.
Step 1: The Miracle in Foxborough
First, the elephant in the room. None of the math matters if Miami doesn't handle business on the field. Unfortunately, "business" involves traveling to a freezing Gillette Stadium to play a 13-3 New England Patriots team that is currently fighting for the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC.
We aren’t playing a Patriots team resting its starters. We are playing a juggernaut that needs a win to secure a bye week. The Dolphins have to play their best game of the season—arguably the best game of the Mike McDaniel era—against a defense that has been suffocating opponents since October. We need Tua (or whoever is under center in this battered lineup) to play mistake-free, and we need the defense to force turnovers. It’s a tall order. A skyscraper-sized order.
Step 2: The AFC South Collapse
If—and it’s a massive if—we pull off the upset in New England, we turn our eyes to the scoreboard. We need the Houston Texans to lose.
This seems plausible on paper, but Houston is fighting for their own seeding. We need their opponent to play spoiler with the intensity of a playoff team. We are essentially becoming temporary, die-hard fans of whoever is playing the Texans. Buy the jersey, learn the fight song, and pray for a Houston collapse.
Step 3: The Strength of Victory Tiebreaker
Here is where it gets "Space Coast crazy." There is a very real timeline where Miami wins, Houston loses, and we end up in a multi-team pileup at 8-9 with the Steelers or Ravens.
Because Miami's conference record isn't sparkling, we might need to rely on the "Strength of Victory" tiebreaker. This means we aren't just rooting for our games; we are rooting for teams we beat back in September and October to win their meaningless Week 18 games just to boost our metrics. We need the teams we conquered to look strong so we look better by comparison.
The Emotional Toll
Why do we do this to ourselves? Why do we stare at playoff machines and simulators until our eyes bleed? Because that’s what it means to be a fan in the 321. Whether you’re listening to the podcast on your drive down A1A or checking scores from a bar in Cocoa Village, the hope is the drug.
The odds are less than 5%. The pundits have already written the obituary. But this Sunday, for three hours, the door is cracked open just an inch.
So, grab your teal, check your blood pressure, and get ready for the most stressful Sunday of the year. It’s unlikely. It’s crazy. It’s probably impossible.
But it’s the Dolphins. And until the clock hits zero, we believe.
Fins Up, Space Coast. Let’s get weird.
