Baker Mayfield completed as many passes against Atlanta last week as the guy selling parking outside the stadium. Tampa Bay won by 16.
That is not a recommended weekly business model. It is, however, a pretty convincing way to announce that your running game has arrived.
The Buccaneers do not play Thursday night. Their next assignment is Sunday, November 8, at Chicago's Soldier Field, with kickoff at 8:20 p.m. Eastern on NBC. Tampa Bay brings a 3-5 record and two consecutive wins. The Bears bring a 6-2 record, three straight victories and a defense that will not confuse a Buccaneers rushing highlight reel with a reason to surrender.
Something has changed in Tampa Bay, though. A 43-13 win over Carolina followed by a 16-0 shutout of Atlanta does not erase the ugly start. It does give us something more useful than another speech about turning the corner. It gives us evidence.
Against the Falcons, the Bucs rushed for a franchise-record 324 yards while Mayfield finished 0-for-3 passing in the rain. Bucky Irving handled 27 carries for a career-high 170 yards and the game's only touchdown. Kenneth Gainwell added 140 yards on 25 carries. According to Elias Sports Bureau, they became the first teammates in NFL history to each record at least 25 carries and 125 rushing yards in the same game.
Two backs. Fifty-two carries. Not much mystery about where the football was going, and Atlanta still could not stop it.
Tampa Bay enters Week 9 leading the NFL with 168.6 rushing yards per game. Irving has 728 yards and six touchdowns. On the other side, Todd Bowles' defense ranks second against the run, allowing 80.0 yards per game, third in total defense and fifth in scoring defense. Those are the foundations of a team that can travel, shorten a game and make a better record across the field matter a little less.
Chicago is equipped to argue with every bit of that.
Ben Johnson's Bears just beat Seattle 34-17. Caleb Williams has a 104.6 passer rating and a six-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio after missing three games with a hamstring injury. Luther Burden has caught 42 passes for 547 yards and three touchdowns. D'Andre Swift has rushed for 545 yards and 10 scores. Chicago ranks third in total offense and eighth in scoring. This is not a team Tampa Bay can beat simply by waiting for the quarterback to make a mistake.
The Bears also added Jeffery Simmons from Tennessee, and his first Chicago appearance produced six tackles, a sack, a tackle for loss and a pass defensed against Seattle. Their run defense ranks fourth, allowing 86.8 yards per game.
That is Sunday's central collision: the league's most productive rushing offense against a front that was already good before it added Simmons. Tampa Bay cannot expect last week's lanes to arrive with the equipment truck.
The Bucs need enough early-down success to keep their offense out of obvious passing situations. Mayfield will have to contribute more than he did in the Atlanta downpour. Chicago ranks second in sacks per pass play, and asking your quarterback to rescue third-and-long all evening is how a promising road trip becomes a very long flight home.
Defensively, containing Williams matters as much as pressuring him. A well-covered play can still unravel if he escapes and buys another two seconds. Tampa Bay's four interceptions against Atlanta, including two by Alex Anzalone, were excellent. They are not a standing reservation for four more in Chicago.
The injury report also deserves attention. On Wednesday, Yaya Diaby and Emeka Egbuka did not practice, Gainwell was limited with a hip issue, and Mayfield participated fully despite his right thumb injury. Those are practice statuses, not final Sunday availability decisions.
Chicago leads the all-time series 40-22, although Tampa Bay has won four of the last six meetings. History offers conversation. Sunday will be decided by the current offensive lines.
Our pick: Buccaneers 23, Bears 20. It requires Tampa Bay's defensive revival to hold and Mayfield to supply the passing answers Chicago will demand. But for the first time in a while, the Bucs have a clear way to win that does not depend on somebody delivering a miracle.
From the Space Coast to Tampa Bay, we will take a running lane over a motivational slogan.
Don't just watch the game. Understand it. Queen Media Sports Report.
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