Denver is 7-2, has won five in a row, and already has a 28-24 win over Kansas City. That's the resume I'm putting at the top of the board heading into Week 10, with Jacksonville right behind them. Here's how I have all 32, before Thursday night in the Meadowlands.
1. Denver Broncos (7-2)
Denver is 7-2 and has won five straight, and that stretch already includes a 28-24 win over Kansas City at home. That's the win I keep coming back to. The Broncos went into Carolina last week and closed out a 26-21 game the same way they've been closing most of them, late and in their favor. They lead the AFC West and they have a bye. I like a team that keeps finding ways to win, and right now nobody's been better at it than Denver.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)
The Jaguars have been the most lopsided winner in football at plus-108, and they just hammered Indianapolis 42-7 and went into Baltimore on a Thursday night and won 33-10. They've allowed 121 points, second-fewest in the league. DaVon Hamilton and Eric Murray are done for the year, so Jacksonville went and got Jordan Davis, Jessie Bates III, and Davon Godchaux before the deadline. That's a January roster, and they're 6-2 heading to Nashville to face a 1-7 Titans club they've beaten four straight times. Denver's got the better record and the win over Kansas City. That's the only reason this isn't a 1.
3. San Francisco 49ers (7-1)
Best record in the NFC, plus-79 on the scoreboard, and 5-0 at home. They just hung 38 on Las Vegas, and they're the clearest No. 1 in their conference until somebody takes it from them. Dallas is next.
4. Buffalo Bills (7-1)
Buffalo has scored 256 points, most in the league, and just walked into Minnesota and won 23-6. That's back-to-back statement games after they dropped 36 on Baltimore the week before. Josh Allen is playing like the best quarterback in the AFC, and this thing is rolling toward a date with the Jets.
5. Cincinnati Bengals (6-2)
Joe Burrow threw for 462 yards and five touchdowns in an overtime win over Tennessee, then Cincinnati went to Madrid and beat Atlanta 34-17. Plus-65, four in a row, and Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are a nightmare for anybody. Pittsburgh comes to town on Sunday night, and that's the game of the week in the AFC North.
6. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)
A 28-24 loss in Denver was the bump in the road, and they answered it by burying the Jets 35-12 at home. Plus-59 is a serious number, and Patrick Mahomes still makes this offense look simple when it has to. Atlanta is a spot they should handle.
7. Minnesota Vikings (6-2)
Minnesota has allowed 116 points, the fewest in the NFL, and a 6-2 team that defends like that belongs right here, even after two straight losses. The offense has only 146 points, and Buffalo just walked in and won 23-6, so I'm not pretending the last two weeks were fine. They went out and got Kirk Cousins from Las Vegas at the deadline to get this thing going again. Green Bay on Sunday is a big one, and if the offense starts to catch up, this spot is going to look light.
8. Detroit Lions (6-2)
Detroit has taken four straight, including a 19-15 win over Minnesota and an ugly 19-9 game in Miami. Jahmyr Gibbs is carrying this thing when the passing game stays quiet, and they're 4-0 at home. New England in Munich is Sunday morning's opener.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
The defense is the engine, 144 points allowed, and they throttled Cleveland 27-6 before the bye. Aaron Rodgers hasn't had to light up the scoreboard, and he hasn't. Cincinnati on Sunday night is the first real measuring stick of this run.
10. Green Bay Packers (6-3)
Jordan Love just threw for 372 yards in a 45-27 win at New England, and Green Bay is right in the middle of the NFC North scramble. Micah Parsons is working his way back from a torn ACL, and if he gets on the field later this month, this defense takes another step. Minnesota comes to Lambeau on Sunday.
11. Chicago Bears (7-2)
Chicago has won four straight, sits at plus-57, and just bought Jeffery Simmons from Tennessee for two first-round picks. The Bears beat Seattle 34-17 and hung on 27-24 against Tampa Bay, and they lead a loaded NFC North. A bye this week is a good time to get Simmons settled. I'm keeping them here this week, with Minnesota's defense getting the nod ahead of them.
12. Seattle Seahawks (5-4)
The defending champs have a plus-40 point differential, which is better than some 6-2 teams, but Sam Darnold is out with a quad and a cracked rib and Drew Lock starts again in Las Vegas. They lost 34-17 to Chicago, then blanketed Arizona 17-3. The talent is still here. The quarterback situation is why they're here and not higher.
13. Los Angeles Rams (5-4)
Matthew Stafford's club has won three straight, including a 24-9 win over the Chargers and a 20-13 game in Washington. Plus-33, and Puka Nacua just went for 150 yards. They go to Arizona looking like the second-best team in the NFC West.
14. New York Giants (5-2-1)
John Harbaugh has this team sitting on top of the NFC East after a 19-11 win in Philadelphia. The point differential is only plus-10, so I'm not getting carried away, but they're 5-2-1 in a division that's falling apart around them. Washington is in the Meadowlands tonight.
15. New England Patriots (5-4)
They were in the Super Bowl last February, and right now they're a 5-4 team that just got smoked 45-27 at home by Green Bay. Plus-4 on the year is not a serious contender's number. They still sit in the last AFC wild-card spot, and they get Detroit in Munich on Sunday.
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6)
Don't let the record fool you. Tampa Bay has outscored people by 24 points, and three of the six losses were by four points or fewer: 19-23 to Cleveland, 14-17 to Green Bay, and 24-27 in Chicago last week. They shut out Atlanta 16-0 and dropped 43 on Carolina. That's not a bottom-feeder profile. They're on a bye, one game out of first in a wide-open NFC South, and if they start closing those tight ones, they're in the hunt.
17. Houston Texans (3-5)
C.J. Stroud just threw for 384 yards in a 44-22 win at the Chargers, and a plus-17 differential is better than the record. They've been up and down, but that was a statement against a bad football team. Cleveland is next.
18. Cleveland Browns (5-4)
The record is ahead of the football. They're minus-35, they just lost in overtime at New Orleans, and Pittsburgh wrecked them 27-6 the week before. Two straight losses, and Houston comes to town.
19. Dallas Cowboys (4-5)
This offense can still cook, 246 points on the year, and Dak Prescott just went for 335 yards in a 27-23 win at Indianapolis, with CeeDee Lamb piling up 195. They also blew a lead and lost in overtime to Arizona. San Francisco visits on Sunday, and that's the test.
20. Las Vegas Raiders (4-5)
Las Vegas has put 238 points on the board and still just got run out of Levi's 38-17. The bigger news is under center. They traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota, and No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza gets his first start on Sunday against Seattle.
21. New Orleans Saints (3-5)
New Orleans needed overtime to beat Cleveland 23-22, and the Saints are still minus-31 for the season. In this NFC South, that was enough to stay in the thick of it. Carolina comes to the Superdome on Sunday.
22. Carolina Panthers (3-5)
The last three have gotten away, including a 26-21 home loss to Denver, and Carolina still has a share of first place in the South. Minus-20, and they go to New Orleans.
23. Baltimore Ravens (4-5)
The last two weren't close: 36-10 in Buffalo, then 33-10 at home to Jacksonville, and that's four losses in a row. Lamar Jackson is on injured reserve with a fractured and dislocated right thumb, and the timeline has been 6 to 9 weeks. This season is slipping. The Chargers come in on Monday night.
24. Washington Commanders (2-5-1)
A 27-10 win over Philadelphia was followed by a 20-13 loss to the Rams. Jayden Daniels is keeping them competitive, and that's about all you can say at 2-5-1. They're at the Giants tonight.
25. Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
Shut out 16-0 in Tampa, then beaten 34-17 by Cincinnati in Madrid. They traded Jessie Bates at the deadline, and this thing is listing. Kansas City visits on Sunday.
26. Arizona Cardinals (3-6)
Three points in Seattle, after an overtime win in Dallas the week before. Minus-77 is one of the worst differentials in the league, and the Rams are next.
27. New York Jets (2-7)
Kansas City just dropped 35-12 on them, and that's four straight defeats. Minus-41, and now the Bills come to MetLife. This is a long afternoon waiting to happen.
28. Indianapolis Colts (2-7)
A 42-7 humiliation in Jacksonville started a slide that hit five losses when Dallas left town with a 27-23 win. Minus-65. Miami comes in on Sunday, and that's a game two struggling teams will be desperate to have.
29. Miami Dolphins (1-7)
The only win was 28-25 over the Jets, and it's been downhill from there. They scored nine points at home against Detroit last week, they've been outscored by 74, and Malik Willis is on injured reserve. Kyle McCord gets his first NFL start in Indianapolis on Sunday. This is a 1-7 team in a rebuild, and the offense has been the problem all year, 126 points in eight games. I wouldn't read too much into one week with a new quarterback, but the standard in Miami isn't supposed to look like this.
30. Philadelphia Eagles (2-7)
Seven straight losses, 148 points scored, and they just traded Jordan Davis to Jacksonville. This has come apart as fast as any team in the league. They're on a bye, and they need it.
31. Tennessee Titans (1-7)
Trading Jeffery Simmons to Chicago for two first-round picks told you where this year is headed. Cam Ward did throw for 304 yards and two scores in a 43-36 overtime loss at Cincinnati before the bye, so there are flashes. Then Jacksonville walks into Nissan Stadium on Sunday, and the Jaguars have had this team's number.
32. Los Angeles Chargers (0-8)
They're 0-8, they've been outscored by 98 points, and Justin Herbert took eight sacks in a 44-22 home loss to Houston. Baltimore on Monday night is the next chance to get one, and it shouldn't be this hard.
