The 6-2 Jaguars head to Nashville on Sunday for a 1 p.m. kickoff on FOX against a 1-7 Titans team they've beaten four straight times. Jacksonville has covered the spread in all four of those wins. After the loss to Houston in London, the Jags came home and hammered the Colts 42-7, then went into Baltimore on a Thursday night and won 33-10. Tennessee lost its last two to Cleveland and Cincinnati, hasn't won at home all season, and is coming off its bye.
That's the setup. Now here's why I like two overs on Sunday.
Trevor Lawrence over 242.5 passing yards (-115, Hard Rock Bet)
Photo by Chris Kim/Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence hasn't had to throw for 350 a week to keep this thing rolling, and that's kind of the point. He's sitting at 1,932 passing yards through eight games, which works out to 241.5 a game. He has 18 touchdown passes, tied for fourth in the league, against only four interceptions, and he hasn't thrown a pick in his last two games.
The line is 242.5, basically right on his season average. In Baltimore he went 16-of-26 for 242 yards. He spread it around to eight different pass catchers and hit Parker Washington for a 50-yard score, all on a night when the run game never really got going. That's the version of Lawrence I trust. He was efficient, he was patient, and the big play was there when he needed it.
Look at the game log and you'll see he's been all over the place: 331 against Philadelphia, 306 against Houston, then 182 against New England and 189 in Denver. He's gone over his posted number in four of eight games. So this isn't a lock, and I'm not going to sell it like one. What tips it for me is the history. Against Tennessee last season, Lawrence threw for 484 yards and five touchdowns across two meetings. The Titans also just traded All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons to Chicago, so a front that already had trouble getting home is now missing its best player.
One thing to watch is the game script. If the Jags are up three scores in the third quarter, they'll lean on the run and he could get pulled early. I'll still take him over at -115. I think Tennessee keeps it close enough early to make him work.
Bhayshul Tuten anytime touchdown (-135, Hard Rock Bet)
Photo by Kam Nedd/Jacksonville Jaguars
This is the one I feel best about. Tuten has found the end zone in five of Jacksonville's eight games. He punched in a 1-yard run on the opening drive in Baltimore. Against the Colts he had 104 rushing yards, plus a touchdown on the ground and another through the air. Against Houston he caught two touchdown passes.
That's what makes the anytime market work for him. He doesn't need 20 carries to cash, because he's catching passes too, and he's the guy they hand it to when they get close. Tennessee's defense just lost its anchor up front, and Jacksonville is going to have plenty of red-zone trips if this game goes the way the last four have.
At -135 you're not getting a bargain, and I know that. Anytime touchdowns are a coin flip for most backs. Tuten isn't most backs in this offense right now. When the opening drive ends at the goal line, he's the one getting the ball.
The case against
I'll be straight about the risk. The Titans are 4-4 against the spread, which tells you they've played better than 1-7. Cam Ward is coming off one of the best games of his career, 26-of-40 for 304 yards and two touchdowns. If he keeps that going, this turns into a game, and a game is actually good for the Lawrence over. The real danger is a Jaguars defense that takes the ball away early and lets the offense coast. That's the outcome I'm betting against.
Bottom line
Lawrence over 242.5 at -115 and Tuten to score at -135, both at Hard Rock Bet. Jacksonville has beaten this team four straight times, and a win Sunday puts the Jags at 7-2 going into the back half of the season. Duval keeps rolling.
Lines move during the week, so check Hard Rock before you lock anything in. 21+, and bet responsibly.
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